Change is fun! No, no. Joda. - Yeah?
The United States is raging with the commercial power, and world policy is changing. It is probably good that Jens Stoltenberg with all his experience and contacts is our new Minister of Finance. But we're not going to miss that this seems to mean a lot of changes for companies and shops in Norway anyway.
International policies and trade are changing, perhaps the biggest change in many decades. Potentially increased customs duties from large trading partners such as the USA, China and the EU can create challenges for Norwegian shops. Increasing customs duties may lead to higher prices for imports, which may in turn affect both online trade and physical shops.
For Norwegian companies exporting products, is this exciting enough: will demand decline when customs rates force higher prices?
For Norwegian traders of foreign products, this means that costs may increase, margins may become more narrow, and customers may react by either reducing consumption or changing their patterns of trade.
Anything that is happening internationally may also lead to no lower interest rates in Norway. It may have something to say for the future purchasing power of consumers -- who sit waiting for lower interest rates.
Norway has had good times for a long time
Norway has historically earned a lot of money on the downward rate of customs duties and the rise in world trade in goods.
Norway sells more aluminium, oil and gas, farmed salmon and engineering services than most. This is a lot of the explanation for Norwegian growth and prosperity. This has created the welfare society we are living in now.
Nine percent of Norway's mainland exports go to the United States, 65 percent go to the EU and the United Kingdom, and 26 percent to the rest of the world.
Therefore, for you as a business owner, it becomes more important than ever to be proactive and adapt to the changes. Then you have a chance to maintain turnover and margins, good customer relationships and ensure the future growth of the store.
What can happen to Norwegian companies and shops?
The learned ones fought. But here are some things that most people agree on.
Increased costs of import-dependent shops
Many Norwegian shops, especially in technology, fashion, interior and sports equipment, depend on imported products. Increasing customs duties would mean significantly higher purchasing costs. The shops will then face an important decision: are they to bear the extra costs themselves, or are they to increase the prices to final customers? A mix?
More competition from Norwegian and Nordic brands
If imported goods become more expensive, Norwegian and Nordic producers may benefit from a competitive advantage. Several shops may start looking for short-term goods to avoid high import costs. This can open doors to Norwegian producers, while allowing retailers to create a stronger brand around locally produced products. But there have been tough times for Norwegian entrepreneurs in recent years. Can we turn this political?
Changes in consumer behaviour
Higher prices may lead to even more price-conscious customers, which may in turn result in lower sales for some shops. More customers are likely to look for discounts, loyalty programmes and value for money.
Multiple customers may delay or reduce their consumption. We've just been through a period of price rise in most areas, where does the limit for each household go? Too many people have already reached the limit.
More reasonable alternatives can be needed. But will chains and shops always be honest about origin, pre-prices and what offer is really? Consumer supervision will have busy times.
I believe shops that manage to control costs while creating stronger customer loyalty will have an advantage in the future, almost anyway.
What are the important factors now in 2025?
Changes in customs policy can lead to large shifts in international trade and there are several possible scenarios that can affect Norwegian shops:
What happens if the United States imposes customs duties on China and the EU?
This can create new supply lines, where products from China become more expensive in the US market, but perhaps more accessible in Europe. We can become more dependent on China.
What if the EU imposes customs duties only on the United States or wider on all countries outside the EU?
This can determine whether Norwegian shops are given access to the EU market or are indirectly affected by new trade restrictions.
Can the EEA Agreement ensure Norway access within the EU's customs walls?
Norway is part of the EEA Agreement. If Norway continues to be treated as part of the EU internal market, it can give Norwegian shops an advantage compared to trading partners outside Europe. But we are dependent on the goodwill of the EU.
How will all this affect trade between Norway and the United States?
If the United States imposes higher rates of duty on European products, Norwegian products may become less competitive in the US market. Trump often mentions Norway in fine words, but what will happen in practice? Will the United States consider Norway as part of the EU, or the rest of the world in the north? It may have a lot to say for little Norway.
What alternative supply chains and manufacturers are available?
Norwegian companies and shops should look at ways of reducing risks by diversifying their suppliers and avoiding dependence on markets with unsafe customs conditions. But what's safe now?
How should Norwegian companies and shops adapt now?
There's a lot going on now, and it's easy to get confused, lose your overview and thus momentum. But we can't afford that, with so much on the line. Norway has a tradition of redesigning and adapting, and we can if we want. Here's some well-meaning advice from me.
First of all, come with us!
There are exciting times--and it's been so long since so much has changed so quickly. At the time of writing things happen daily. While international trade is changing, media, tools and platforms are constantly changing. So keep your eyes open, read the finance news, and try to see how the changes are going to affect your business. Have the options clear, plan for the worst and hope for the best.
Look at your range - is it time to include more Norwegian goods?
Norwegian and Nordic products can be more attractive if import costs increase. Finding local suppliers can be a strategy to minimise risks and adapt to changes. This is also good for the Norwegian economy and, not least, for preparedness. In addition, Norwegian goods can often be marketed with advantages such as shorter delivery times and higher quality.
Focus on More Than Price
Price is important, but it is not the only factor that determines the customer's choice. Shops that can offer added value in terms of customer service, fast delivery, high product quality or a strong brand will benefit.
Improve marketing – Now every crown becomes more important
In a situation where margins appear to be pressured further, it is important that marketing crowns are used smarter than ever. Below are some good advice from us in INEVO.
What do we recommend in INEVO that you focus on in your marketing?
Here are some strategies that can help you in the time that comes:
Data-driven advertising
Target all campaigns against the most relevant customers to obtain maximum dividend from the advertising budget. Perhaps it becomes even more important than before to focus on profit-based bidding and POAS.
SEO and organic visibility
Optimize your online store for search engines, so you don't have to be as dependent on paid advertising.
Get better on social media
Consider the media you are present on, how you advertise and target, and what material you use. Many Norwegian shops have down-priority because it is difficult to get good results. But it's possible with the right approach.
Remedies and personalisation
Use data to meet customers with custom messages, especially those who have already shown interest in your products. But follow GDPR.
Mail marketing services
This becomes even more important, because you talk directly to the customer and can build stronger relationships over time. Here many Norwegian online stores have unprejuvenated potential!
Good marketing becomes more important than ever
If customs rates increase, retailers will need to adapt rapidly to maintain competitiveness. Those investing in good marketing, optimising the range and strengthening their brand will have a much greater chance of success.
INEVO helps Norwegian shops adapt to market changes and exploit the opportunities available. That property is already important, it's now becoming critical. When pressure is imposed, it is more important to ensure that marketing yields maximum yield. Is your store ready for the changes?
Whoever bought a crystal ball will see how this ends. But it's going to be exciting, it's definitely.